Can XRP price break $1.54 after Ripple’s 1B unlock?

XRP has held near $1.50 on Oct. 1 after Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP worth roughly $1.49 billion, while ETF inflows and new XRP Ledger adoption have yet to push the token through the 1.54-1.56 resistance area.

CoinGecko shows XRP trading around 1.48-1.50 at the latest reading, with the token moving between approximately $1.48 and $1.54 during the past 24 hours and carrying a market capitalization above $93 billion.

The latest price leaves XRP near the middle of a short-term range that has formed after its September rebound. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 1.46-1.48 area, while attempts to move through 1.54-1.60 have struggled to hold.

XRP price faces fresh supply after Ripple unlock

Onchain Lens reported that Ripple released 1 billion XRP from programmed escrow contracts shortly after 00:00 UTC on Oct. 1. The tokens were unlocked through four transactions involving 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million XRP.

Whale Alert independently recorded the 300 million XRP transaction at 00:00:02 UTC, valuing the tranche at approximately $446.6 million when XRP traded near $1.49. XRP Ledger tracking data had previously identified four Ripple escrows totaling 1 billion XRP as eligible for release on Oct. 1.

An escrow release does not mean all 1 billion tokens are being sold. Ripple has historically returned part of its monthly allocation to new escrow contracts, while the remainder can stay in company-controlled wallets or be used for business purposes.

The distinction was examined in crypto.news coverage of Ripple’s September 1 billion XRP unlock, when onchain data showed the release but could not establish how much would eventually reach public trading venues.

Before the October transaction, XRP was already struggling to maintain moves above $1.50. The fresh unlock therefore creates another supply event for traders to monitor, but there is no verified evidence that the entire $1.49 billion notional value has entered exchanges for sale.

ETF demand has not pushed XRP through resistance

Institutional demand has continued through U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds. SoSoValue data shows that the products attracted $121.4 million during September, with cumulative inflows since launch reaching roughly $1.79 billion.

XRP had dropped from its Sept. 23 high near $1.66 to around $1.49, reducing the market value of tokens already held by the funds.

Earlier crypto.news analysis of XRP’s ETF demand and $1.55 resistance found that the funds received $75.59 million during the week ending Sept. 25, taking cumulative inflows to around $1.79 billion while XRP continued testing the same resistance region.

Price action has therefore remained muted compared with the size of reported fund inflows. ETF purchases represent one source of demand, while exchange selling, derivatives positioning, Ripple distributions and activity from existing holders can affect the other side of the market.

Flare co-founder Hugo Philion questioned XRP’s limited reaction after another institutional development involving Brazil, calling the drop following the announcement “lunacy.” His comment is an opinion about the market reaction and does not establish that the Brazilian project should increase demand for XRP.

Brazil deal puts XRPL inside regulated market infrastructure

Ripple announced on Sept. 29 that CSD BR had started using the XRP Ledger as an additional record and audit layer for Brazilian financial assets, beginning with investment fund shares from BTG Pactual.

CSD BR operates registration, depository and settlement infrastructure containing more than BRL 22 trillion in registered assets. Under the first phase, BTG Pactual fund shares are tokenized using XRPL’s Multi-Purpose Token standard and mirrored onto the public ledger. CSD BR’s existing systems remain the official source for ownership, registration and settlement.

The project therefore does not put BRL 22 trillion into XRP or represent direct purchases of the token. Ripple’s release describes XRPL as a complementary record layer that authorized participants can use to check the consistency of CSD BR’s records.

As crypto.news reported on CSD BR’s XRP Ledger integration, the first deployment involves a live regulated environment instead of a controlled proof of concept. Future phases could expand into native issuance and trading of assets such as Brazilian real estate and agribusiness receivables.

CSD BR said current processes remain unchanged during the mirroring stage while the firm evaluates the technology under live operating conditions. Ripple’s release says later stages remain dependent on successful validation of the initial phase.

XRPL lending vote adds another network catalyst

XRP Ledger developers are simultaneously advancing native lending infrastructure. The XRP Ledger Foundation released version 3.4.0 in September with LendingProtocolV1_1, which extends proposed lending and vault functionality with closed-ended vaults and cash-basis accounting.

Ripple’s technical documentation explains that closed-ended vaults move through subscription, investment and redemption periods. Cash-basis accounting would recognize interest as borrowers make payments instead of recognizing all scheduled interest when a loan originates.

Mainnet lending is not active yet. The base LendingProtocol and SingleAssetVault amendments remain in validator voting and need sustained network consensus before activation.

Recent crypto.news coverage of XRP Ledger 3.4.0 similarly noted that LendingProtocolV1_1 does not become available simply because the software has been released. Validator approval remains a separate requirement.

The proposed system uses offchain underwriting to evaluate borrowers while recording fixed-term loans and pooled vault assets directly through XRPL protocol features. Activation would therefore create new ledger functionality, but it does not guarantee additional demand for XRP.

Can XRP price clear $1.54?

The supplied daily chart shows XRP’s 14-period RSI at 55.70, down from its moving average of 59.27. RSI remains above the neutral 50 line but has cooled from levels reached during the September advance.

The Aroon Oscillator remains positive at approximately 42.86. Combined with XRP’s sideways trading around $1.50, the reading points to an upward component remaining in the recent trend while momentum has lost strength.

Analyst Ali Martinez identified $1.54 as the immediate breakout level from a symmetrical triangle forming on the hourly chart. Martinez said an hourly close above $1.54 would confirm his breakout scenario, which projects a possible move of roughly 10% toward $1.70. The $1.70 level is his technical target, not a confirmed price outcome.

EGRAG Crypto presented a longer-term scenario in which XRP remains in a macro retest after an earlier breakout. The analyst identified $1.64 as the first higher level and said a weekly reclaim above $1.92 would provide stronger confirmation for his structure. EGRAG acknowledged that XRP could form another low, a higher low or continue moving sideways.

For the shorter time frame, 1.54-1.56 remains the first resistance area. A sustained move through that zone would return attention to $1.60 and the September high near $1.66, while the chart places immediate support around 1.46-1.48.

A break below $1.46 would weaken the current consolidation structure and return lower support levels to focus. Holding above that area while RSI remains over 50 would keep XRP inside its existing consolidation range until buyers or sellers establish a clearer move.