By gold looking to retrace to buying levels this week
After giving a strong buying move last week after weak NFP data, which weakened the dollar and strengthened the XXXUSD pairs, XAUUSD is now looking to retrace to key buying levels before continuing its rally upwards to $3433 and possibly above $3500 as well.
Summary
- Following last week’s gain, gold is still in a bullish bias, with significant targets at $3440 and possibly a fresh ATH over $3500.
- The key U.S. economic events this week (CPI, PPI, retail sales, and unemployment claims) may cause short-term volatility, with weaker data boosting gold and greater inflation data pressing it.
- Major resistance is located at $3431–3451 (daily supply zone), while key support is located at $3340–3310 (4H FVG).
- Higher periods still encourage purchasing dips for the upswing to continue, while lower timeframes indicate possible short bets.
The bias in gold for this week is buy with potential targets of $3440 and even a new ATH above $3500!. With that in mind, let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from August 11th to August 15th, 2025.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Aug 12 – CPI & Core CPI:
A higher-than-expected Core CPI might put pressure on gold and support the USD. Choppy price movement could result from this being offset by a weaker headline CPI.
Aug 14 – PPI & Unemployment Claims:
Stronger producer-level inflation would be indicated by higher PPI figures, which would be negative for gold as expectations of Fed hawkishness rise. A little increase in unemployment claims might help gold.
Aug 15 – Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment:
Resilient consumer spending would be indicated by strong retail data, which would weigh on gold. Poor performance might lead to safe-haven purchases. Expectations for inflation and consumer sentiment will be important; high expectations could limit the potential of gold.
If the demand and inflation figures this week are strong, the bias may be skewed toward short-term pessimism; however, any indications of decreasing inflation or economic slowdown could swiftly turn the mood favorable.
Gold HTF Overview
As discussed in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, the monthly timeframe is showing a move upwards towards external liquidity, and that is exactly what’s happening right now.
We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.
Gold forecast for August 11th to August 15th, 2025
The major buying level for gold is in the 4h FVG of $3340-3310, as it has formed after breaking the structure in gold. We can expect a move of 200-500+ points in gold this week.
While selling can be expected at the $3340-3309 4h FVG level as mentioned above, however, it is better to wait for the daily timeframe selling zone, which is starting from $3431-$3451, as it is the daily supply zone of gold.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- $3431-3451 – daily timeframe supply
Support Levels
- $3340-3310 – 4h FVG of gold
