Bitcoin whale moves $378M after 6 years: Is a selloff coming?

Bitcoin whale moves $378 million after years of holding

According to Arkham’s blockchain records, the sending wallet originally received 4,582 BTC on March 3, 2020. The holdings were valued at approximately $40.8 million at the time, when Bitcoin was trading near $8,900. At the valuation reported for Monday’s transfer, the same balance was worth roughly 9.3 times its original value.

The funds originally came from Bitcoin address 17VX1BEjYVyBMi2vw6nXDrpwMvCSweHZot. Blockchain records indicate that the wallet retained nearly its entire balance through the market crash of March 2020, when Bitcoin briefly dropped below $4,000 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although the wallet is being described as dormant for six years, its transaction history shows a small outgoing payment in August 2024. The transfer involved 0.009 BTC, with the remaining funds returned to the same wallet. Monday’s movement was therefore its first major transfer since receiving the coins in March 2020, not its first outgoing transaction of any size.

At the time of reporting, the five recipient addresses had not been identified as exchange deposit wallets. Lookonchain did not establish whether the addresses belonged to different owners or were controlled by the original holder. No confirmed sale accompanied the transfer, leaving its purpose unknown.

The movement adds to a series of large transfers from dormant Bitcoin wallets recorded during 2026. In July, another wallet that had remained inactive for more than eight years transferred 5,908 BTC worth approximately $383 million. Onchain records in that case did not establish that the coins had been sold.

Another dormant Bitcoin whale transfers 4,500 BTC

The latest transaction follows another large Bitcoin transfer involving a long-inactive wallet. Last week, address bc1q4hm96naa2ydcqlxpwlvljvrnt5svm8ejcqnhj0 moved approximately 4,500 BTC worth $375.7 million after more than four years of inactivity.

The transaction was separately identified through blockchain monitoring, with the funds transferred to another Bitcoin address. Available records did not establish whether the owner intended to sell, move assets into custody or reorganize holdings across wallets.

Combined, the two reported movements involved approximately 9,082 BTC valued at $753.3 million using their respective transaction-time prices. The transfers occurred on different dates and came from separate wallets, with no established connection between their owners.

Similar activity has been recorded throughout the year. In July, Arkham identified a wallet that transferred 2,931 BTC worth approximately $188 million after seven years without major activity. The holder had acquired the coins when Bitcoin traded near $6,500, leaving the wallet with substantial unrealized gains before the transfer.

Onchain monitoring firms track long-held coins through measures including Coin Days Destroyed and Spent Output Age Bands. CryptoQuant uses such indicators to examine when older Bitcoin holdings become active. Movements involving long-held coins can accompany selling activity, although wallet transfers alone do not establish whether the owner has liquidated any assets.

CryptoQuant warns of stronger Bitcoin selling pressure in U.S.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has reported growing selling pressure among U.S. market participants during October. His assessment focuses on the Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase with those on Binance.

According to the analyst, the volume-weighted version of the indicator has remained deeply negative for several days, suggesting weaker demand or stronger selling activity on Coinbase. The methodology gives more weight to larger transactions, reducing the influence of smaller trades on the reported price difference.

Darkfost interpreted the negative readings as evidence that institutional and professional market participants using Coinbase were selling more aggressively than traders on Binance. The comparison does not directly identify individual sellers, and a negative premium cannot independently establish the volume of institutional Bitcoin sales.

His assessment follows a period of weaker U.S. demand. On October 12, CoinGlass data showed the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index had remained negative for 19 consecutive days, reaching approximately -0.12%. The measure compares Bitcoin’s trading price on Coinbase with prices elsewhere in the market.

CryptoQuant has previously examined institutional demand through the Coinbase Premium Index, using the indicator to track relative buying pressure from U.S.-based market participants. Persistent negative readings indicate a price discount on Coinbase, although the indicator covers activity from different categories of investors.

Darkfost attributed the latest weakness partly to macroeconomic conditions, including rising government bond yields, persistent inflation concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar. He pointed to the Dollar Index climbing above 102, its highest level since April 2025, as financial markets responded to geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The analyst argued that higher borrowing costs and reduced liquidity were discouraging professional investors from taking additional exposure to Bitcoin. His interpretation remains a market assessment and does not establish a direct connection between the Coinbase premium and the 4,582 BTC whale transfer.

Bitcoin price struggles as large wallet movements continue

Bitcoin traded near $83,500 at press time, down approximately 1% over 24 hours, after falling to around $81,220 earlier in the session. The movement followed several days of price weakness as traders monitored exchange activity, macroeconomic developments and large onchain transfers.

During the same period, QCP Capital maintained a fourth-quarter base-case trading range of $80,000 to $90,000 for Bitcoin. The firm’s assessment identified $80,000 as an important support area and suggested that a sustained move above $87,000 could bring $94,000 into focus. The levels represent QCP’s market outlook, not confirmed future prices.

U.S. government-linked Bitcoin transfers have attracted attention during the recent market decline. Between October 7 and 8, government-associated wallets moved approximately 9,261 BTC worth $770 million to Coinbase Prime. The transactions involved several groups of seized assets, including Bitcoin linked to the Bitfinex hack.

Blockchain records documenting the U.S. government’s $770 million Bitcoin transfers did not confirm that the coins had  been sold. Coinbase Prime provides both custody and trading services, meaning a transfer to the platform cannot independently establish liquidation.

Separately, publicly listed Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings transferred approximately 996.105 BTC worth $81.13 million to Galaxy Digital and another associated address on October 9. Lookonchain identified the transactions, although the available blockchain records did not establish that MARA had completed a sale.

The MARA Holdings Bitcoin transfers occurred as Bitcoin traded near $82,300, with market data showing continued weakness in short-term technical indicators. The mining company’s reported transactions did not include a publicly confirmed sale price or completed disposal agreement.